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Government can control disasters.

How Government Makes Disasters More Disastrous, By Thomas A. Bowden

In a speech from New Orleans last week, Republican presidential candidate John McCain lashed out at the Bush administration for its response to Hurricane Katrina. McCain's remarks, which appeared calculated to make disaster relief a key campaign issue, revived harsh memories of the savage storm that inundated the Mississippi Delta in late August 2005, leaving more than 1,800 people dead and causing widespread property damage.

Although the floodwaters long ago receded, government officials are still counting the disaster's costs. Earlier this year, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers disclosed that 489,000 claimants are seeking damages caused by poorly designed levees. Of those claimants, 247 want more than $1 billion each, including one whopper for $3 quadrillion (a stack of a quadrillion dollar coins would reach beyond Saturn).

The tax dollars spent resolving those claims will augment the tens of billions already paid to restore and repopulate New Orleans, a below-sea-level bowl situated precariously amidst a lake, a major river, and a gulf, in a known path for hurricanes.

Disasters can sometimes shock a nation into questioning entrenched practices. But Hurricane Katrina, perhaps the worst natural disaster ever to befall America, has failed to spark serious challenge to long-standing government policies that actively promote building and living in disaster-prone areas.

The Katrina tragedy should have called into question the so-called safety net composed of government policies that actually encourage people to embrace risks they would otherwise shun--to build in defiance of historically obvious dangers, secure in the knowledge that innocent others will be forced to share the costs when the worst happens.

Without blaming the victims for having followed their own government's lead, it is time to question whether those policies should continue.

The first strands of today's safety net were spun in the nineteenth century, as the Army Corps of Engineers shouldered the burden of constructing and maintaining levees and other flood controls along the Mississippi River. From then to now, Congress and the states have responded to each new flood by installing newer, higher, and stronger barriers at public expense, as if the preservation of a city like New Orleans in its historical location were a self-evident necessity.

Throughout the twentieth century, new strands were woven into the safety net, first in the form of loans to disaster victims, then by direct grants, infrastructure repairs, loan guarantees, job training, subsidized investments, health care, debris removal, and a host of similar rehabilitative measures.

In 1968, the National Flood Insurance Program began supplying subsidized coverage for structures and their contents in flood-prone areas. Similar state-subsidized insurance programs arose for hurricanes in Florida and earthquakes in California. In 1978, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was created to coordinate the increasingly complex job of government disaster response.

At each juncture, more aid was funneled to disaster victims without serious challenge to the wisdom of encouraging people to occupy vulnerable locations.

In response to Mississippi floods, Florida hurricanes, and California earthquakes, the number of major disaster declarations almost doubled from the 1980s to the 1990s, from an annual average of 24 up to 46. At century's end, Congress was paying an average of $3.7 billion a year in supplemental disaster aid, with state taxpayers contributing many millions more. As of August 2007, Katrina relief alone had cost federal taxpayers $114 billion.

By gradual steps, this disaster safety net became part of the legal landscape, taken for granted by private investors and owners deciding to undertake new projects or rebuild storm-damaged areas. Relief programs--by minimizing, disguising, and shifting the real risks of defying natural hazards--became an active force distorting private decision-making and inviting even worse future tragedies.

Thus if a pre-Katrina Mississippian asked himself, "Should I build my house 10 feet above sea level, a quarter-mile from the Gulf Coast?" the answer came back: "Sure, why not? The government will look after me if disaster strikes."

This entitlement mentality ensured that each new tragedy would generate fresh demands to expand the safety net. In Katrina's aftermath, those demands centered on State Farm, which dared to deny certain claims under homeowners policies that covered wind damage but expressly excluded floods. Mississippi's attorney general immediately sued to void flood exclusion clauses as "unconscionable" and "contrary to public policy" and even launched a criminal investigation of State Farm's claims adjusting practices.

Last year, a jury inflamed by adverse public opinion awarded $1 million in punitive damages against State Farm for having stood on its contract rights in a dispute involving a single house. That case was recently reversed on appeal, but the victory is cold comfort for State Farm, which in the meantime elected prudently to calm the litigation storm by paying tens of millions of dollars to settle claims for unproven wind damage. Voila! The safety net had a brand new strand, woven at the insurance company's expense.

Disgusted, State Farm announced last year that it would cease writing new homeowners policies in Mississippi.

As more private insurers withdraw from high-hazard areas--or raise their rates to reflect the staggering legal and public relations costs of offering disaster insurance--a predictable lament arises: the free market has failed, and government must fill the vacuum so that the statist safety net remains strong. Thus it surprises no one to hear Florida Gov. Charlie Crist challenging this year's presidential candidates to support creation of a federal catastrophic fund that would keep insurance premiums artificially low in disaster-prone areas across the country.

But the solution is not more of the market distortions and perverse incentives that have lured so many people into harm's way. The solution is to replace the prevailing entitlement mentality with a free market in disaster prevention, insurance, and recovery.

In a free market--without tax-paid levees, government disaster relief, or subsidized insurance--anyone who contemplates building or buying property in a high-hazard area will need to face hard facts about the local history of natural disasters, the efficacy and cost of preventive measures, and the availability of insurance. . .

With their own lives and wealth at stake, people will have every incentive to evaluate risks objectively. And if hardy souls still choose to occupy and fortify New Orleans, or build on an earthquake fault, or live in a tornado alley, the risk and reward will be theirs alone. No longer will government make disasters more disastrous by pretending that citizens have a right to defy the forces of nature at others' expense.

Thomas A. Bowden is an analyst at the Ayn Rand Institute, focusing on legal issues. Mr. Bowden is a former attorney and law school instructor who practiced for twenty years in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ayn Rand Institute promotes Objectivism, the philosophy of Ayn Rand--author of "Atlas Shrugged" and "The Fountainhead." Contact the writer at media@aynrand.org.

To read more, go to www.aynrand.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=17647.

Government health care subsidies also create health care disasters.    

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Previous Issue:                                         (current issue)     (past issue)

We Need Government to Control the Price of Pharmaceuticals

Wal-Mart Widens Drug Discounts, By ANN ZIMMERMAN, WSJ, May 6, 2008

In another expansion of its cut-rate prescription-drug program, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it will sell 90-day supplies of more than 300 generic drugs for only $10, taking aim at the burgeoning mail-order pharmacy business by undercutting their prices on some drugs and speeding delivery.

In addition, the Bentonville, Ark.-based retailer said it is adding a second pricing tier to the heavily discounted program for more-expensive medications geared toward women's health. It is adding $9 generic prescriptions for up to a 30-day supply on a handful of drugs for treating osteoporosis, breast cancer, menopause and hormone deficiency.

For instance, alendronate, the generic version of osteoporosis medication Fosamax, will be added to the list. Pharmacies in Wal-Mart Supercenter, Sam's Club and Neighborhood Market stores will offer 30-day prescriptions of alendronate for $9 and a 90-day supply for $24, compared with the previous price of $54 and $102, respectively, the company said. Tamoxifen, a breast-cancer treatment, will sell for $9 for a 30-day supply.

Wal-Mart for the first time is now selling over 1,000 over-the-counter medications at $4, including its private-label Equate brand versions of drugs such as Zantac and Claritin, as well as its Spring Valley private label prenatal vitamins. The price is about 50% lower than at many other national-chain drugstores and supermarkets, Wal-Mart said, citing internal research. The selection represents about a third of Wal-Mart's over-the-counter drug offerings.

[chart]Since launching its $4 generic prescription drug program in September 2006, Wal-Mart has seen pharmacy sales grow as a percentage of its overall sales. In the fiscal year to Jan. 31, health and wellness sales, including prescription and over-the-counter drugs, accounted for 9% of its U.S. sales of $239.5 billion, up from 8% two years before. Analysts estimate that drugs account for about half of those sales. The majority of the 350 generic drugs that Wal-Mart sells for $4 will be available at $10 for a 90-day supply.

Wal-Mart expects some competitors to again match these programs. Late Monday, Target Corp. said it plans to match all facets of Wal-Mart's discount prescription and over-the-counter drug plan.

Go to http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121002048022568563.html.

Looks like free enterprise is far more effective in lowering drug costs than any government program, which usually increases prices. Isn't the answer to pharmaceutical costs obvious? Or is Medicare Part D eliminating innovation and reform again? 


Past Issue:                                         (current issue)     (previous issue)

Scary Forecasts are Medicare's Little Secrets

Scary Forecasts by John Goodman, PhD, The Expert Who Explodes Medical Myths.

Today I'm going to let you in on a little secret about forecasting health care costs:  All the forecasters cheat.  Cheat?  Yes, cheat.  

There is nothing underhanded about it.  For people who read footnotes and appendices, the information is all there.  But for ordinary mortals, the projections you see are not what you think they are. 

But let's back up.  Why do you even care about forecasts of future health care spending?  The rational reasons are:  (1) to figure out what path we are currently on, (2) to decide whether the path is acceptable, and (3) if it is not acceptable, to figure out how to get off of it.  

Turns out, however, that the estimators at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Social Security/Medicare Trustees have already done tasks (1) and (2) and decided that the future is so terribly awful, they cannot possibly wait for you or anyone else to do task number (3).  

So what we get out of these agencies is not a real projection of the past into the future but one that has been tempered by ...the hope? ...the wish? ...the refusal to accept reality? ...or the fanciful belief that somehow, somewhere, in some totally unexplained way we will ...we must ...we have to ...get off the path we are on.  

For example, the Medicare Trustees, after acknowledging that health spending has been growing at a rate that is 2 to 3 percentage points above GDP growth, assume that the growth rate will decline to the GDP growth rate over the next 75 years.  The CBO, after acknowledging that health care spending per capita has been growing at a rate that is 2.1 percentage points faster than GDP per capita for the past 30 years, assumes much slower rates of growth for Medicare and Medicaid beginning in 2018 and thereafter.  

Will those changes occur?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  It still begs the question:  What path are we really on?  Note:  even after tempering, all the projections are bad.  However, a new CBO www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/87xx/doc8758/11-13-LT-Health.pdf contains an untempered projection that implies that:  

  • Within the next 50 years, by the time today's teenagers reach the retirement age, health care spending will crowd out every other program of the federal government.

  • Well before that occurs, Medicaid spending at the state level will crowd out every other function of state government.  

To avoid this unpleasant outcome and keep all other programs in place, we will have to double the size of government!  A previous www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/82xx/doc8295/07-09-Financing_Spending.pdf  estimates the needed tax rates at 66% for middle-income families and 92% for high-income families - assuming no increase in taxpayer resistance.  

That is the path we are on.  We will not get off of it with pen and ink. We will get off of it only with real reform. . .

John   

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John Goodman, President, National Center for Policy Analysis
12770 Coit Rd., Suite 800, Dallas, Texas 75251 www.ncpa.org 

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NCPA is a service mark of the National Center for Policy Analysis. We are an independent public policy institute and are not affiliated with any other organization, trade association or corporation.      

Copyright 2003-2008 National Center for Policy Analysis - All rights reserved.

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